Journalists arrived and wrote their customary reports from the picturesque Midwest, praising the state but not giving it enough credit. The candidates threw money and effort into the state, with Florida governor Ron DeSantis—once the front-runner for the nomination—placing all of his eggs in the state. They persevered to get to the high school gyms and leisure facilities where the caucuses were held, despite a menacing blizzard and the harsh cold of a plains winter. And all of this work, all of this expenditure, and all of this was done with the intention of changing nothing at all regarding the race.
The major networks called for Trump virtually immediately as the doors opened, and he easily won the Iowa caucuses. Except maybe for the most naive DeSantis aides, there was never any doubt that he wouldn’t. As both pretend to be running for president—and not, as anyone can see, for the offices of vice president and attorney general, respectively—Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis were in a close contest for second place. The networks, possibly because to their denial or the fact that Trump’s fait accompli lacks a storyline and viewer appeal, have spent the most of the previous year acting as though there is a real Republican primary race. It doesn’t exist.
Looking back, it was always a little crazy to think that someone other than Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee in 2024. The move made sense in a desperate way in 2022 and 2023 when big donors, weary of Trump, started dumping outrageous sums of money into the DeSantis campaign. With a commanding 19-point lead, DeSantis had won reelection in Florida. He had taken advantage of the state to establish himself as the face of the racial and gender injustices that had spurred many Americans to support Donald Trump. However, DeSantis was envisioned as “Trump without the baggage.” He was expected to be more focused, more effective, and less prone to controversy, flattery, or the diversion of short-term self-interest because he was an extremely skilled policy wonk.
However, DeSantis’s offering to voters was all of Trump’s grievances without any of his charm or comedy. DeSantis is eerie and reptilian while on the trail. His pitiful and plaintive demeanor makes his animosity towards racial and gender minorities seem more like a cry for help than a strong opinion. His propensity to say the wrong thing is nearly uncanny. He burned tens of millions of donor cash in Iowa, going through tissues like a dumped prom queen. He required a commanding victory in Iowa, or at least what qualified as a commanding victory: a solid, conclusive, and narrow second place. He was unable to understand.
He paid a heavy price for that failure. DeSantis has been traveling and making appearances nonstop over the past few weeks. He promised to perform in-person events in all 99 of Iowa’s counties, and it seems that he has succeeded in being unlikable and uninviting everywhere.
It has long been believed that Trump is a sick symptom of America’s broken institutions.
Haley, on the other hand, has managed to hold onto a sizable portion of the “Never Trump” vote—that is, the remaining portion—while assiduously avoiding offering any criticism of Trump. According to reports, the former president’s advisors advised him to look for a female vice president in an effort to offset Dobbs’ political risk.
Haley’s presidential campaign, as it stands, has essentially been little more than a protracted casting call, one that she entered with an almost hound-like eagerness.
It has long been believed that Trump is a sick symptom of the broken institutions in America. He is what happens when a nation adopts the facade of a pluralistic democracy without actually empowering its historically oppressed populations on the political front; when republican systems of governance coexist with extreme wealth inequality; when the public believes that corruption is a more important guiding principle than morality; and when the electorate’s expressed wishes no longer appear to have any discernible influence on the positions taken by policymakers.
His rise is the result of all these reasons, which also propelled him to victory in Iowa on Monday night with the same tenacity that propelled him to the nomination in 2016.
However, the reason behind the political and media establishment around Trump’s tardiness in adapting to the reality he has imposed remains unclear. The networks reported the challenges as if they were serious; newspapers told us again that liberals must understand Trump’s appeal, as if we had not been made so thoroughly and repeatedly aware of Trump and the precise nature of his appeal for the better part of a decade. The donors flocked to DeSantis in an extremely costly form of denial.