The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has chosen not to run in the general election this year in Indian-administered Kashmir, more than four years after the party terminated the region’s special status.
The choice, according to opposition leaders and political observers, suggests that there is resentment in the area over the change and the party’s admission of it.
For many years, there has been tension between Delhi and Kashmir. Over the past three decades, thousands of people have died in the Himalayan region as a result of both military operations against Indian control and an insurgency against it.
The situation deteriorated in 2019 when the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi removed almost all of Article 370, a section of the Indian constitution that had granted the area a great deal of autonomy, and split it into the federally governed regions of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.
A severe communication embargo was also enforced by the government, and hundreds of political figures—including three previous chief ministers—were detained for several months.
Since then, Mr. Modi and his officials have defended the 2019 choice on several occasions, saying that it has resulted in regional peace.
Through door-to-door campaigning, local BJP leaders have also worked hard in the past few years to increase the party’s base of support in Kashmir.
Therefore, many have been taken aback by the party’s decision to not file any candidates in the current general election, which is the first in the region since Article 370 was repealed. (The BJP has candidates in two of the Jammu seats, where Hindus predominate, but none of the three Kashmir valley seats, where Muslims do.)
Securing the “hearts of the people” is the BJP’s primary goal, according to the leading spokesperson for the party in Jammu and Kashmir, who says that winning elections is not a priority.
“It took us 75 years to fully integrate Kashmir with the rest of the country and we don’t want [to create] an impression that we have done this exercise just to win seats,” Sunil Seth stated.
However, detractors claim that this is because the party’s leadership has realized how difficult it would have been to win in the area.
Political analyst Noor Ahmad Baba notes that while the “achievement” might sell in other states, the removal of the Himalayan region’s special status hasn’t gone down well with the local populace.
Leaders of the opposition also claim that Mr. Modi’s party intended to keep the election from becoming a referendum on its choice for 2019.
Former regional chief minister and National Conference (NC) party member Omar Abdullah claims, “the BJP wouldn’t have hesitated to fight if people were happy with the abrogation of Article 370.”
“But they don’t want to expose themselves, and to save their face, they have decided not to contest.”
In Jammu and Kashmir, there are five stages to the voting process. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Peoples Conference (PC), and the Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party are among the contenders in addition to Mr. Abdullah’s NC. Congress, the major opposition party in India, is also running.
The PC and Apni Party are being supported by the BJP, according to NC and PDP leaders, who have referred to them as their “proxies” in the electoral process.
There have been no official pronouncements of an alliance by the BJP. However, BJP insiders informed the BBC that the party would offer its backing to certain parties with bases in Kashmir’s north and center. According to Ravinder Raina, the party’s regional chairman, they would support “like-minded parties” last month.
Many of the party’s local members, who claim to have been preparing for the polls since 2019, claim that the party’s decision to concede ground caught them off guard.
“We are disheartened, but we must accept the party’s decision,” continues Fida Hussain, a party employee from the Baramulla district of north Kashmir.
The fact that the BJP hasn’t run in a regional general election since 1996 makes the decision all the more unexpected.
Although the party has not historically had significant support in this area, analysts claim that in recent years, its cadre base has grown.
It performed best during the 2014 state elections, when it teamed up with the PDP to form the government as the second-largest party. Out of the 87 total seats, the party won 25 of them in Jammu.
The last assembly elections in the former state were held on this date. After the coalition fell apart in 2018, Mr. Modi’s administration established direct governance over the area.
After winning three seats in Kashmir and the local elections in 2020, the party saw an increase in support.
Two years later, the government redrawn the assembly seat boundaries, giving Jammu six extra seats and Kashmir one more, for a total of ninety seats. (Jammu held 37 seats and Kashmir 46 seats up until 2019).
The activity was interpreted by many as an attempt to give Hindus more clout in the electoral process in the area.
Nonetheless, analysts claim that despite some electoral victories, the BJP hasn’t had much of an impact locally.
Delhi has had direct authority over the area. However, people like a democratically elected government in which they have a direct voice over the leadership,” the analyst Mr. Baba argues.
Locals and leaders of the opposition claim that a number of additional things have contributed to the general feeling of alienation among people. High unemployment rates, a lack of local representation in politics, and alleged violations of human rights by security personnel are a few examples of this.
The PDP spokesperson, Mohit Bhan, states that “losing from Kashmir would have been a major defeat, even if they win all the seats in the rest of the country.”
“To avoid that they opted not to field any candidate,” he says.
